Mortgage Rates Have Been Much Calmer, But They're Still High
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Remember October and the first part of November--not because of the election, but rather because of the relentless rise in mortgage rates? Would you rather forget? You're not alone. It was the fastest rate spike since 2022, and it was made all the more memorable because it put a... .. read more..
Mortgage Applications Technically Improve
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
First thing's first, mortgage applications increased last week, both for purchases and refinances! It was the first improvement for refi demand since mid September, when rates were well into their lowest levels in more than 2 years. Top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates were being quoted a... .. read more..
Customer Service, Cybersecurity, Repurchase, LLPA Protection Tools; Politicia...
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
“I thought swimming with dolphins was expensive until I went swimming with sharks. It cost me an arm and a leg.” Through the wonders of modern air travel, I find myself in St. Louis for the MBA of St. Louis event. Here in St. Louis, lending costs, rates, and regulations are on the minds of lender... .. read more..
Geopolitical Headlines Behind Small But Noticeable Reactions
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
There has been plenty of news over the past 48 hours regarding the U.S. greenlighting Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia. Yesterday's examples resulted in relatively modest overnight gains for the bond market. Today's example is a developing story. It involves Ukraine firin... .. read more..
Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
Bonds Give Back Most of The Overnight Gains Stocks and bonds had a logical response to the threat of global nuclear war overnight, but even at the height of that trade, the gains weren't too big for Treasuries/MBS. Starting at 9am ET, bonds began giving back the overnight gains and that pro... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Lower Despite Seemingly Big News
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
Ask your favorite curmudgeonly old market watcher and they'll be happy to explain what "always" happens in financial markets when there's breaking news regarding large scale geopolitical risk. It would be a surprise if you didn't hear a phrase like "flight to safety," the most common shorth... .. read more..
Two Ways to Look at Residential Construction Slowdown
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
The most common interval for scheduled economic data is "monthly." That means that things like inflation, sentiment, job counts, unemployment, retail sales, and many other economic metrics are updated and released every month, even when nothing very interesting is happening. On that note, t... .. read more..
Jumbo, Non-QM, Milestone, HMDA Review Tools; Disasters and GSE Loans; Intervi...
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
“What do giraffes and zoning regulations have in common? They both don't exist in Texas.” I am not heading there for a while, but instead head to St. Louis this morning for the MBA of St. Louis event. I received this note from a veteran broker. “Someone please remind government officials, bank ma... .. read more..
Threat of Global Nuclear War Barely Worth a Bond Rally
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
Tuesday brings a classic example of a seemingly significant geopolitical headline resulting in a completely underwhelming bond market reaction. When it comes to such matters, we must ask "who thought it seemed significant?" Quite a few people, most likely, but not as many bo... .. read more..
Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend
Monday, November 18, 2024
Still Waiting For an End to Unfriendly Trend It was an uneventful Monday for the bond market. Economic data was limited to the NAHB Housing Market Index (builder confidence)--a report that hasn't been a market mover since the financial crisis. And none of the news headlines had an obv... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Didn't Move Much Over The Weekend
Monday, November 18, 2024
The average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate was just a hair over 7% on Friday afternoon and the same is true at the start of the new week. Rates are based on bonds, but while bonds move constantly throughout the day, mortgage lenders only adjust rates once per day unless there's exces... .. read more..
Like Many Housing Metrics, Builder Confidence is Just Waiting For Lower Rates
Monday, November 18, 2024
Historically low interest rates may not have guaranteed historically high levels of housing activity, but exceptionally high rates have definitely muted activity in a measurable way. We've cataloged this incessantly when it comes to refinance activity, but there's a correlation with home sa... .. read more..
FHA, HELOC, VOIE, DPA Products; Webinars and Training This Week; Climate Impa...
Monday, November 18, 2024
“I didn't make it to the gym again today. That makes five years in a row.” I did, however, make it to the aerodrome over the weekend, which involved travel (not on Spirit) from Ohio to Nevada, and also a look in the mailbag. “Rob, are you hearing something about some states contemplating requirin... .. read more..
It's The Economy
Monday, November 18, 2024
While financial news outlets continue focusing on politics and Trump's cabinet picks, the bond market is expressing anxiety about the risk that economic data continues coming in hotter than expected. Even when it comes to the Fed, monetary policy has been and will continue to be dictat... .. read more..
Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week
Friday, November 15, 2024
Uneventful Conclusion to Another Volatile Week This morning began like many other recent mornings with economic data making a strong, logical case for bonds to move in a certain direction only for bonds to subsequently reverse course and do something else. In today's case, it was Retail Sal... .. read more..