Markets Rocked by New Tariff Drama
Friday, October 10, 2025
Markets Rocked by New Tariff Drama Bonds were already having a decent day this morning with overnight market movers bringing yields in line with the lower end of the recent range. Mid-day drama caused massive selling in stocks which spilled over and made for an extension of the already-decent bon... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day
Friday, October 10, 2025
Mortgage rates saw their biggest day-over-day decline of the past several weeks today in response to unexpected news regarding additional tariffs on China. Trump had previously been scheduled to meet with China's President Xi in 2 weeks, but today said there was no reason to do so and that ... .. read more..
Refi Demand Ebbs Gradually As Rates Remain Rangebound
Friday, October 10, 2025
Mortgage application activity declined again last week as refi demand continues pulling back after the surge in mid September. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, total volume fell 4.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% unadjusted. The Refinance Index ... .. read more..
Audit, Interest Rate Risk Products; Gov't Program News; Home Builder Intervie...
Friday, October 10, 2025
The stalemate & shutdown continue, all but eliminating the government release of economic news. Recall that the U.S. Treasury posted a $345 billion budget deficit in August, the largest monthly deficit of 2025 and the 2nd-worst August on record but helped by tariff revenue. This is up from Ju... .. read more..
Overnight Gains on Fed Comments And Japanese Politics (Really)
Friday, October 10, 2025
At the start of the week, we noted Japanese political developments as a key reason for overnight losses on Monday morning. This had to do with Takaichi winning control of Japan's LDP party, thus making her the front runner to become the Prime Minister. Her economic views fueled fears that Ja... .. read more..
Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform
Thursday, October 9, 2025
Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform It's not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury outperformance) was on full display today with M... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher
Thursday, October 9, 2025
It's getting pretty tough to weave an interesting narrative on mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks. During that time, they just haven't changed that much for the average lender. Today was just another day in that regard. Bonds (which dictate day to day movement in rates) were slightly weaker tha... .. read more..
DPA, eNote, Credit Tools; Fannie and Freddie Open for Business; Conv. Conform...
Thursday, October 9, 2025
“Two lawyers walk into a pub. They order a couple of drinks and take subs out of their brief cases. They begin to eat. Seeing this, the angry pub owner exclaims, ‘Excuse me but you cannot eat your own sandwiches in here!’ The two look at each other, shrug, then exchange sandwiches.” Legal news le... .. read more..
In-Range Weakness For No Particular Reason
Thursday, October 9, 2025
With Jobless Claims on hold due to the shutdown, bonds are forced to endure another data-free morning. The calendar offered a glimmer of hope with a Powell speech, but it was pre-recorded and did not address monetary policy. With that, bonds wait for the day's only real potentially significant ev... .. read more..
Some Selling Pressure After Auction and Fed Minutes
Wednesday, October 8, 2025
Some Selling Pressure After Auction and Fed Minutes There were no market-moving economic reports scheduled for today regardless of the government shutdown. That left the focus entirely on the afternoon events: the 1pm 10yr Treasury auction and the 2pm release of the Fed Minutes (a more detailed a... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Remain Steady
Wednesday, October 8, 2025
Mortgage rates technically ticked a hair lower today, but it's more accurate to view them as being broadly sideways. Some lenders issued improvements yesterday afternoon. Those lenders were closer to unchanged this morning. As of this afternoon, several lenders have already issu... .. read more..
Trading, Non-QM, Fraud Detection Tools; Equifax's Price Cut; Webinars and Events
Wednesday, October 8, 2025
We’re sailing through autumn. Places like Seattle and Minneapolis are losing 3-5 minutes of sunlight a day. Donald Trump told Congress to end changing clocks, but is seems that most states will still do it (“spring ahead, fall back”) November 2. Time flies, and we’re 23 days away from Halloween. ... .. read more..
Light Calendar; Afternoon in Focus
Wednesday, October 8, 2025
While there are a smattering of Fed speakers on the calendar today, the morning comments are not likely to have an impact. In fact, the average Fed speech is a forgettable event these days as there are only so many ways to say "inflation is still higher than we want, but we're feeling a bit more ... .. read more..
Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction
Tuesday, October 7, 2025
Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory as yields continue to drift inside the narrow post-Fed range. The absence of big-ticket econ data is a key reason for the lack of volatility. But the lower-tier econ data can still move the need... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady in Tight Range
Tuesday, October 7, 2025
Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow range for nearly 3 weeks with the last major move seen on September 17th and 18th following the Fed rate cut. Paradoxically but not surprisingly, rates actually moved higher after the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate. Contrary to popular belief, Fed comments an... .. read more..