Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week
Friday, February 21, 2025
Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week Bonds benefited from a one-two punch of economic data and stock market weakness on Friday, eventually helping 10yr yields flirt with their lowest levels since December 18th (Feb 5th and 7th still technically a hair lower). MBS have outperformed over that time... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates End Week at Lowest Levels Since December 18th
Friday, February 21, 2025
Back on December 18th, rates began the day fairly close to where they ended the previous day. In the afternoon, rates surged sharply higher following the Fed announcement. Even since then, the average 30yr fixed rate has operated almost exclusively above 7%. Rates dipped a pinky toe into th... .. read more..
Refi Apps Still Near Best Levels Since October, Despite Larger Decline This Week
Friday, February 21, 2025
Per the latest release from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), both refinance and purchase indices decreased this week. In terms of the change from the previous week, it was the biggest drop so far this year, but not remotely as big as last week of 2024. Here is the refi index in terms... .. read more..
Building Permits Staying Fairly Calm as Housing Starts Whipsaw
Friday, February 21, 2025
The Census Bureau released its New Residential Construction report this week, frequently referred to by its principal component "housing starts" (a term for the start of the first phase of new home construction). In addition to housing starts, the data also logs building permits as well as comple... .. read more..
Builder Confidence Dropped, But Not Enough to Jump to Conclusions
Friday, February 21, 2025
The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) along with Wells Fargo released the monthly builder confidence index this week, and it came out much weaker than expected. With tariff and immigration news rapidly evolving, it's tempting to conclude that any major changes in homebuilder sentiment w... .. read more..
Near Best Levels in Months After AM Econ Data
Friday, February 21, 2025
MBS are very close to their February 5th levels, which were the best since the morning of December 18th before the Fed announcement (and dot plot) caused a big sell-off. Today, it's econ data that's contributing to the third day in a row of moderate gains. Specifically, S&P Services PMI... .. read more..
Verification, LO Database, Construction Appraisal Tools; Fiscal vs. Monetary ...
Friday, February 21, 2025
While much of the nation deals with the severe cold, I received this note from a new loan officer in Oklahoma. “Rob, I overheard my secondary group talking about a ‘PITA’ price adjustment. I didn’t want to show my ignorance. What is it?” You should ask your team, as it refers to a price handicap ... .. read more..
Very Low Volatility After Early Morning Rally
Thursday, February 20, 2025
Very Low Volatility After Early Morning Rally Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker in the overnight session, but bounced back at 7am ET. The two most notable developments at the time were weak earnings from Wal-Mart and a comment from Bessent on the mix of Treasury issuance. While the for... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Casually Drift Back to 2 Month Lows
Thursday, February 20, 2025
It was a fairly decent day for mortgage rates with the average lender returning to the lowest levels in just over 2 months. The improvement followed early morning comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the probable mix of future Treasury debt. What's that got to do with mortgage... .. read more..
Stronger Start. Thank Walmart or Bessent?
Thursday, February 20, 2025
There's an interesting little case study in this morning's market movement. Bonds had been sideway to very slightly weaker overnight, but began to rally at 7am ET. The most notable market headline available at the time was news of Walmart's disappointing earnings. Some market journalists cr... .. read more..
FHA Layoff News; Non-Del, SAM, Onboarding, Default Solutions; Training Opport...
Thursday, February 20, 2025
“Inflation is really getting out of hand... But that's just my 5 cents.” Inflation impacts the prices of fixed-income securities, like the kind backed by mortgages. Inflation takes a while to move, but this week President Donald Trump this week admitted that prices are rising but insisted that it... .. read more..
Deep Dive on Today's Misunderstood Fed Comments
Wednesday, February 19, 2025
Deep Dive on Today's Misunderstood Fed Comments Today's only potential big ticket event was the release of the minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting (3 weeks ago). These weren't very likely to cause a stir, but an odd inclusion caught the market's attention. In not so many words, it had to d... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Unchanged After Mid-Day Changes
Wednesday, February 19, 2025
It was almost a mildly interesting day as rates started out slightly higher. To be fair, even that would not have been too interesting because the move was so small that most rate quotes would have been unaffected. Still, just to be sure to avoid any and all excitement, rates received... .. read more..
Non-Agency, HELOC, Pre-Qual, CRM Products; In-Person Events; Applications Fall
Wednesday, February 19, 2025
So, you drive across town to a gym to walk on a treadmill? There are always interesting and strange things going on out there. Huh? The Florida’s governor wants to eliminate property tax? Yes, the state currently runs a budget surplus, but with no income tax, and no property tax… Huh? KFC is leav... .. read more..
Stabilizing After Early Weakness; Do Fed Minutes Matter?
Wednesday, February 19, 2025
Bonds extended yesterday's selling streak in the overnight session, but not in an alarming or serious way. Momentum reversed at 9am without any clear catalyst apart from the technical ceiling at 4.57% in 10yr yields. Yields have dropped a few bps since then to return to just-barely-stronger... .. read more..