Almost No Reaction to Fed Minutes
Wednesday, August 20, 2025
Almost No Reaction to Fed Minutes As expected, today's Fed Minutes (a more detailed account of the meeting that took place 3 weeks ago) had very little impact on the bond market. Markets honed in on one newswire in particular which noted the Fed saw inflation risks outweighing employment risks. T... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Barely Budge
Wednesday, August 20, 2025
For the 11th straight business day, mortgage rates are very close to the levels from the end of the previous day. Over the past week, however, most of these small day-to-day movements have been microscopically higher. Today's is no exception. The net effect is that the average top tie... .. read more..
Mortgage Applications Inconsequentially Lower vs Last Week
Wednesday, August 20, 2025
Mortgage application activity eased last week, but not in a statistically significant way. One might be inclined to note a very slight uptick in mortgage rates, but it's just as fair to say that rates held steady near longer-term lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey ... .. read more..
Broker Services, HELOC, Best Practices, Debt Tools; Voice of the Industry; MB...
Wednesday, August 20, 2025
“I asked a German girl if Germans are afraid of numbers. She said 9!” Numbers make up the bond market, and a steeper yield curve (the difference between short-term rates and long-term rates… steeper = more of a difference) tends to help banks and credit unions since they are paying less on deposi... .. read more..
FOMC Minutes: Ancient Time Capsule, Or...
Wednesday, August 20, 2025
By now, we've already said quite a bit about this week's scarcity of scheduled events with the power to motivate meaningful changes in the bond market. With that being the case, one might be tempted to consider today's FOMC Minutes as one of the biggest potential flashpoints and the first real op... .. read more..
Slow, Steady, Modest Improvement
Tuesday, August 19, 2025
Slow, Steady, Modest Improvement Bonds are in the throes of the summertime "blahs." In other words, excitement and high-conviction trading are in short supply. Instead, prices and yields are drifting in a broadly sideways path with minimal day to day movement. Motivations are non-existent and the... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Little Changed From Monday
Tuesday, August 19, 2025
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds, and bonds have some seasonality to them. This doesn't necessarily mean there's a reliable seasonal pattern for the direction of rate movement. Rather, it means that several weeks in August tend to be fairly forgettable in terms of excitemen... .. read more..
Incentives Rise as Builder Confidence Matches 2022 Low
Tuesday, August 19, 2025
Builder sentiment remains deeply subdued, as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo’s Housing Market Index (HMI) dipped one point in August to 32—its 16th straight month below the key 50 mark, and matching the lowest level since December 2022. Current sales conditions fe... .. read more..
Multifamily Construction Surge Masks Weaker Building Permit Pipeline
Tuesday, August 19, 2025
The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a sharp rebound in July, with overall housing starts climbing 5.2% to a 1.428 million annual pace. Multifamily activity led the way, jumping to 470k—its highest level since May 2023—while single-family starts rose 2.8% to 93... .. read more..
Incidental Resilience
Tuesday, August 19, 2025
If yesterday was marked by incidental weakness, today is shaping up to be the opposite. In fact, yields and MBS prices are right in line with Friday's latest levels in early trading (now moving lower), as if Monday never even happened. "Incidental" remains a valid theme for most of th... .. read more..
AI, SOC, Credit Union, Home Equity Tools; LOs and The HELPER Act; STRATMOR an...
Tuesday, August 19, 2025
14 fonts Apologies first! Yesterday I mistakenly wrote, “ARMs now account for nearly 50 percent of applications…” Thank you again to those who wrote, questioning that stat. I was thinking refis. “Given the relative attractiveness of ARM rates compared to fixed rate loans, ARM applications increas... .. read more..
Incidental Weakness or a New Trend?
Monday, August 18, 2025
Incidental Weakness or a New Trend? The most interesting thing that happened in the bond market today involved trading levels breaking to just slightly worse levels than last week. Looking back to the beginning of the month, this is starting to look like a trend toward progressively weaker ... .. read more..
Rates Trickle to Another Higher Low
Monday, August 18, 2025
Mortgage rates are as high as they've been on almost any other day this month. You'd have to go back to August 1st to see anything higher. On the other hand, rates are still noticeably lower than almost any other day of the past 10 months. It's really only the past 2 weeks that ... .. read more..
PPE, Credit, Compliance, QC Tools; Events, Webinars, and Training; ARMs Risin...
Monday, August 18, 2025
As I type this, I’m at the doctor’s office, and some guy a few seats over is booing all the names being called that aren’t his. Do you boo the products that you don’t have? Non-Agency lending, much of it in the form of non-QM loans, has been moving steadily higher at the expense of Freddie Mac’s ... .. read more..
Light Calendar; Early Selling
Monday, August 18, 2025
Summertime trading conditions tend to amplify trading motivations that might otherwise get lost in the shuffle. This morning, it's been the opening bells (8:20am CME and 9:30am NYSE) that have resulted in distinct phases of selling pressure. That weakness offsets moderate overnight strength... .. read more..