Deep Dive on Thursday and Friday's PCE Discrepancy and Market Reaction
Friday, April 26, 2024
WARNING: once you get past the 1st paragraph here, things start to get a bit "mathy" and esoteric. The takeaway is that there's an actual way to reconcile today's 0.3 vs 0.3 monthly core PCE result against yesterday's 3.7 vs 3.4 annual result. Yesterday's GDP data included the Core PC... .. read more..
Servicing, MISMO Consulting Products; STRATMOR and Decisioning; UWM and UMort...
Friday, April 26, 2024
There seems to be a bit of a baby boom going on out there. Prospective home buyers who need a place for a growing family quickly find out that residential lending isn’t without its share of tears. Next time you’re dealing with an upset borrower or loan officer, here’s something you can try. “We a... .. read more..
Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data Today's big surprise was the PCE price index component of Q1 GDP. GDP itself was weaker than expected, but even that was explained away by components not related to private domestic consumption. Focusing on the latter makes Q1 lo... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Jump Up And Over 7.5% After Inflation Surprise
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations. One of the Fed's favorite ways to track progress on inflation is the PCE price index which comes out every month, but also every quarter. Oddly enough, the quarterly c... .. read more..
Electronic Bidding, MORA, Processing, Marketing Tools; CFPB and Servicing Fee...
Thursday, April 25, 2024
I travel a little bit, so it was with great interest that I read, “The Department of Transportation… will soon require airlines to quickly refund passengers if they cancel, delay, or make significant changes to flights.” “A book hit my head, and I have only my shelf to blame.” Odd things happen a... .. read more..
Quarterly PCE Data Causing Concern Over Tomorrow's Monthly Numbers
Thursday, April 25, 2024
It's a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement. At face value the headlines make a better case for lower rates with GDP at 1.6 vs 2.5, wholesale inventories missing big and Jobless Claims not too far from forecast. But ... .. read more..
Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data Bonds were weaker in the overnight session on a combination of anxiety over potential sales of US Treasuries in Japan and European economic data. The domestic session brought actual selling of US Treasuries in the form of the 5yr Treasury... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Pleasantly Stable Despite Some Bond Market Weakness
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
The average mortgage lender was able to offer conventional 30yr fixed rates that were very close to yesterday's levels despite bond market movement that suggested a bigger spike. In a vast majority of cases, if the bond market is in weaker territory compared to the previous day, rates will ... .. read more..
Data Mining, Servicing, Marketing Products: Check Your Noncompete Agreement; ...
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Sometimes you just have to “risk it for the biscuit.” Capital markets are, for the most part, a little more complicated than, say, a recipe for next level dark chocolate brownies with salted caramel. Occasionally the topic of LOs or brokers being able to lock a loan, any time, any day, comes up. ... .. read more..
The Other Side of Sideways
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
The bond market has been decidedly more sideways after hitting longer-term yield highs last Tuesday. 10yr Treasuries have been a relatively narrow range since then, mostly respecting a ceiling of 4.65 and a floor of 4.57. The first two days of the week saw yields start near the ceilin... .. read more..
Mortgage App Volume Declines Across the Board
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell back for the first time in three weeks during the week ended Aril 19 as interest rates continued to rise. The Index declined 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis... .. read more..
Straightforward Gains After PMI Data
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Straightforward Gains After PMI Data Tuesday's session was infinitely more interesting than Monday's with the caveat being Monday was a total snooze-fest. Bond market volumes were much closer to recent averages and there was even some logical, data-driven volatility. As always, v... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Lowest in a Week
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Mortgage rates are driven by day to day changes in the bond market. Bonds are focused on the Fed and the economic data that shapes Fed decisions. Today's data isn't necessarily big on the Fed's radar, but the market reacted due to its implications on other data. Specifically, the S&am... .. read more..
Spring New Home Sales Prove Resilient to Higher Rates
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Existing home sales posted strong gains in February while sales of new homes slipped slightly. In March each category switched directions. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said newly constructed homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000 c... .. read more..
Bonds Showing Strong Desire For Econ Data
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase "data dependent" has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to understanding the interest rate outlook? Yes, actually, it can sometimes still be a surprise because data dependency depends on the data being... .. read more..