Surprisingly Resilient Despite Stronger NFP
Friday, December 8, 2023
Surprisingly Resilient Despite Stronger NFP Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)--the headline component of the big jobs report came in higher than expected today. Adding to the challenges for the bond market, the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.7% from 3.9% previously (also the forecast for today). G... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Surprisingly Resilient Despite Moving Slightly Higher After Jo...
Friday, December 8, 2023
Heading into this week (and even throughout the entirety of last week) we were mostly focused on seeing today's jobs report for the next big dose of influence on the mortgage rate landscape. Unsurprisingly, a strong report resulted in higher rates, but not as high as we might have imagined. In fa... .. read more..
Jobs Report Good Enough to Rain on Bond Bull Parade
Friday, December 8, 2023
Bond bulls have been on parade since November 1st and especially since November 14th (CPI). Since then, we haven't seen any real threats to the linear rally trend. It's a testament to that bullishness that today's 10bp spike in 10yr Treasury yields actually still manages to fit inside... .. read more..
LO Technology, Broker PPE Products; Training and Webinars This Week; 3.7% Une...
Friday, December 8, 2023
“What do you call James Bond having a bath? Bubble 07.” In different bond matters, mortgage rates will always be higher than Treasury rates, in part because of the prepayment risk in mortgages that doesn’t exist with Treasury bonds. With the drop in rates, sales management personnel at lenders ar... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Today, But Probably Not Tomorrow
Thursday, December 7, 2023
If you're reading this on Thursday, December 7th, it is the day before the big jobs report--the one that has all the potential in the world to cause huge reactions for interest rates. It's not that lenders are watching the economic data and then guessing at how to adjust their rates in resp... .. read more..
How Big Could Friday's Jobs Report Be?
Thursday, December 7, 2023
How Big Could Friday's Jobs Report Be? Thursday ended up being a very calm day relative to most of the recent context. MBS lost an eighth and 10yr yields moved up a few bps, but both are still right in line with their best levels in months. There were no stand-out market movers and no... .. read more..
No Major Volatility Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report
Thursday, December 7, 2023
Thursday didn't exactly have any high risk events from a data standpoint with weekly Jobless Claims being the most notable report. Claims came in very close to consensus while continued claims fell back below 1.9m. One could argue that there was a brief selling response in bonds, but it did... .. read more..
Bulk Sales, Best-Ex, Accounting Outsourcing, Verification Tools; FHA and Ginn...
Thursday, December 7, 2023
Time flies (see joke at bottom), and here we are at Pearl Harbor Day already. “I'm a multitasker. I can listen, ignore, and forget all at the same time!” Occasionally someone will accuse me of having a sense of humor. If true, it can be traced back to my parents, but a portion of it came from wat... .. read more..
Another Day, Another 4-Month Low
Wednesday, December 6, 2023
Mortgage rates are hitting lower milestones like it's their nine to five recently and today was just another day at the office. The average lender was only modestly lower versus yesterday, but since yesterday was effectively a 4 month low, today therefore deserves the same recognition. In f... .. read more..
More Gains. Are Bonds Overbought?
Wednesday, December 6, 2023
More Gains. Are Bonds Overbought? The combination of friendly economic data, dovish comments from the Bank of Canada, and lower oil prices helped yields drift down to new 3-month lows this morning. In less than a month and a half, that brings the size of the 10yr yield rally to nearly 90bps... .. read more..
Steadily Weaker Data Keeping Steady Rally Intact
Wednesday, December 6, 2023
Another day, another set of economic reports that offer no objections to the steady bond market rally of the past few weeks. Yesterday's heavy lifting came courtesy of JOLTS (job openings). Today's was more of a team effort with ADP employment missing the forecast at 8:15am and Labor ... .. read more..
Broker and Correspondent Products, Tax, Lead-Gen, Fee Collection, Pre-Qual To...
Wednesday, December 6, 2023
Yesterday I was driving across Northern California to the coast (Gualala), and in Sacramento I asked the McDonald’s drive-through clerk (hey, only the best for me!) why the medium French fries were 30 cents more than the double cheeseburger ($4.29 versus $3.99). She immediately launched into an e... .. read more..
Refinancing Perks Up as Rates Drop
Wednesday, December 6, 2023
Double-digit declines in many mortgage rates helped revive interest in refinancing last week and a subsequent increase in the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA’s) Market Composite Index. The Index, a measure of application volume, rose 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. Before adjustme... .. read more..
Mortgage Rates Effectively At 4 Month Lows
Tuesday, December 5, 2023
Right from the start and with only a few days that didn't fit the narrative, November was a stellar month for mortgage rates, and December is picking up right where it left off. The first few days of the new month have only seen rates move lower by 0.07%, but that's a strong showing conside... .. read more..
Logical Response to Data. Bonds Not Looking Nervous at 3 month lows
Tuesday, December 5, 2023
Logical Response to Data. Bonds Not Looking Nervous at 3 month lows We knew that today's JOLTS and ISM reports were likely to cause a reaction if they were much higher or lower than expected. ISM ended up coming in right in line with forecasts, but job openings fell more significantly. ... .. read more..