Lebanese BlogoSphere

So who's blocking who?

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 01:05 GMT

Finally and after much delay, the Opposition has given its names and posts it wants in the new government and still there is no cabinet. Why? Because now it's March 14's turn to bicker about the distribution of their seats. What on earth have they been doing the last five weeks?

For once, Aoun is making sense when he says that they don't have the right to delay for even five minutes the line up of the new government.

Syria ready to finish off Hezbollah?

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 05:48 GMT

Rumors about Syria wanting to get rid of Hezbollah have been spreading increasingly since the killing of Hezbollah strategic mastermind Mughnieh in Damascus. Now, good ol' shaky Abssi (back from the dead) has vowed revenge against those who started the sectarian war that has lead to the takeover of West-Beirut, saying that suicide bombers would not spare God's enemies wherever they are.

Assuming Syria's sponsoring Fatah al-Islam, it seems natural to conclude that Assad has had it with Hezbollah. They must be wanting that peace with Israel pretty badly.

Addendum: a friend wanted to add another argument in favor of the idea that Syria is trying to ditch Hezbollah, namely the "new documents" that president Suleiman apparently has received that would provide additional support for the claim that the Shebaa Farms belong to Lebanon. A plausible theory would be that these documents came from Assad. Is this Syria's way to make Hezbollah even more irrelevant?

Addendum II: someone pointed out another event that supports the theory that Syria has had enough of Hezbollah, namely the cancelling of the national strike by the Labor Union on May 7. Interesting enough, I had written about this angle, but subsequently forgotten about it.

Guess Who's Back

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 09:30 GMT

(click on the pic to find out)

Etienne Sakr For President

Fri, 09 Nov 2007 04:45 GMT

From Now Lebanon:

Here's an interesting turn around in the monotony and boredom of our daily political life! Etienne Sakr, also known as Abu Arz, has officialy (PDF, needs acrobat reader) declared his candidacy for the upcoming presidential elections.

Personally I am a non-partisan individual, and I'd like to emphasis on that. However, I cannot deny my admiration and endorsement of some of the GoTC's Ideology:

Promotion of the Lebanese Nationalism
Emphasizing on the Lebanese Heritage and Nationality
Secularism
The struggle to expell all 'foreigners' out of Lebanon
Cancelation of the hideous Ta'ef accord

Radical Lebanese? these folks probably are, but that would be an accusation the GoC might be proud of. Offensive Ideology? maybe, depends on how you personally perceive it. However, It is undeniable, that some of the points mentioned in the GoC's ideology deserve a thorough study and investigation, which would form a formidable homework for every Lebanese who'd like to conclude by himself the validity of these claims. I have personally started doing this homework a long time ago, visiting and studying various websites, going through numerous reports, reading pro and anti phoenician claims and so on, the official history book taught in Lebanon is nothing short of a big, fat lie!

I'd like to encourage everyone who might be reading this, to start doing a bit of homework, you might find a few facts which you might have been oblivious of. You could start by visiting this website, very informative, objective and unbiased (at least that's my own conclusion).

Back to politics, whether you hate the living hell out of Etienne Sakr and his war-time logo "It is the duty of every Lebanese to kill a Palestinian" or you are an adoring fan of this man's uniqueness is up to you. But we have to admit that amidst this boring routine of "met, dined, talked, thought, declared" this and that, his running for presidency, no matter how much of a joke it might be, is at the very least, a routine-breaker.

On a side note, I'd like to point that the GoTC official website, has some interesting reports and facts which certainly deserve a visit! (a reminder for those who might have amnesia)

So where is that heat wave?

Wed, 25 Jun 2008 00:56 GMT

Two days ago, the weather girl of one of the Lebanese TV stations showed it would be a whopping 37C on Thursday. That would be extremely hot for Beirut. I once downloaded he temperature data from the website of the Beirut airport and the maximum was 37C, which happened only once in the covered period of 20 years. Most common maximum temps in summer are 32-33C.

Today, it's hot but not that hot. What makes it bearable in Beirut is the breeze. So what gives with the expected 37C for tomorrow? Well, rest assured. The Accuweather website shows a high of 26C only for Thursday! The forecast was off by 11C.

Photo 1: No heat wave, only a cool 26C expected for tomorrow

BTW, check the expected temperature at the end of the forecasting period: 35C! Yup, it's going to be bad, real bad! Just for fun, check this graph for the coming days/weeks and you'll notice the temperature always goes to extreme highs towards the end in summer and to extreme lows in winter. They must be accommodating their Lebanese customers who thrive in a climate of fear mongering!

See below for the following expected temperatures for the coming period:

Photo 2: Feel free to PANIC: heat wave expected 15 days from now!!!

Inglorious Baathists

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 05:28 GMT

Here's my commentary on the crisis between Iraq and Syria. The Iraqi government has accused Syria of harboring and refusing to hand over figures who have played a direct role in the latest bombings in Baghdad.

The Syrians, I argue, are playing an old game of theirs, trying to create for themselves a political asset (where none exists in Iraq) using Muhammad Younis al-Ahmad, whom they cultivated in order to attempt and create a splinter faction of the Iraqi Baath party that they would control (think Abu Musa and Fateh Intifada, e.g.). I had blogged about him back in 2007.

The Iraqis are also shining the spotlight on Syria's sponsorship of Al-Qaeda in Iraq as well:

Shemari said when he arrived in Syria from Saudi Arabia, he was met by a militant who took him to an al Qaeda training camp in Syria. The head of the camp was a Syrian intelligence agent called Abu al-Qaqaa, he said.

"They taught us lessons in Islamic law and trained us to fight. The camp was well known to Syrian intelligence," he said.

For more on the infamous Abu Qa'qa', see my old post here.

You'll recall that in the case of al-Qaeda's Abu Ghadiyah, the Iraqis had told the Syrians numerous times to hand him over, to no avail, until the US raided his hideout in the Syrian border town of Al Bu Kamal and ostensibly took him out. Similarly today, the Syrians are playing the same game.

This type of transparent evasive trickery will have repercussions on the already cautious US engagement effort.

Finally, Arabic readers should also check out Hazem Amin's follow-up in al-Hayat.

Assef Shawkat Makes the Grade

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 12:27 GMT

From Foriegn Policy magazine's review of the Middle East's five most powerful intelligence chiefs ... charming (emphasis, invariably, mine):

Position: Former commander of Syria's military intelligence agency, current deputy chief of staff of the Syrian military

Career: Few paths to power have been as unlikely -- or as oddly romantic -- as Assef Shawkat's. Born in the coastal town of Tartus, Shawkat served in the Syrian military while pursuing a graduate degree in history, a subject for which he has a deep affinity. Shawkat moved easily within elite circles, socializing that paid off spectacularly when he captured the heart of Syrian President Hafez al-Assad's daughter, Bushra. His dogged pursuit of Bushra -- her father initially opposed the relationship -- earned him some measure of respect: "Anyone who could go into the home of Hafez Assad and take his daughter away without his permission has the power to do anything,'' a Syrian newscaster who had met Shawkat many times told the New York Times in 2005.

By the late 1990s, Shawkat had joined the inner sanctum, assuming command of military intelligence in February 2005 -- the same month former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri was assassinated. The initial findings of a U.N. commission cast suspicion on Shawkat, leading many observers to suggest that President Bashar al-Assad would hand his brother-in-law over for questioning or possible trial. In January 2006, the U.S. Treasury Department added to the avalanche of condemnation by freezing Shawkat's assets and dubbing him "a key architect of Syria's domination of Lebanon".

Influence: By 2008, having successfully avoided the calls for his extradition, Shawkat appeared poised to continue the consolidation of his power base. However, his ascension may have been stalled by the death of Hezbollah security chief Imad Mugniyah in February 2008. Killed in the heart of Damascus, Mugniyah's death was viewed as an embarrassing breach of security or even an indication of Syrian involvement. Tellingly, Shawkat was barred from participating in the joint Hezbollah-Syrian-Iranian investigation into Mugniyah's death. Additionally, just this month, Shawkat was "promoted" to deputy chief of staff of the Syrian military, a transfer that may signal a deterioration of the Assad-Shawkat relationship. However, given Shawkat's marriage to Bushra and his long-standing ties to senior members of the security apparatus, it is way too early to count him out of the Syrian power game.

Is the Obama Administration Fed Up with Syria?

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 08:32 GMT

Hussain Abdul-Hussain has a very interesting report in the Kuwaiti Al-Rai today (Arabic): As a result of its frustration with Assad's negative behavior, Abdul-Hussain writes, the Obama administration has decided against sending its ambassador back to Syria at this time, in a reversal of the announcement made 100 days ago.

This report comes a few days after Jackson Diehl wrote in the Washington Post that "George J. Mitchell, the Middle East envoy, appears to have given up on including Syria in the Middle East negotiations he is preparing to launch." Mitchell did not include Syria on the itinerary of his current trip to the region.

Abdul-Hussain spoke to unnamed sources and US officials who expressed to him that the Obama administration has had it with the Syrians, who, according to one source, "don't know the difference between normalizing relations and [them] behaving like they've defeated the US in a world war."

Anyone who's read my commentary, whether here or elsewhere, knows full well that that's precisely how the Syrians were interpreting engagement. Remember Imad Shoueibi, the incomparable apparatchik who declared that Syria had "broken" the US, and that it was therefore "up to the defeated to present his menu and up to the victor to present his demands," even threatening then Acting Asst. Sec. Feltman?! And of course, who can forget the comedy classic, the list of conditions to "Abu Hussein" from the regime's most amusing clown, Sami Moubayed?

The sources go on to tell Abdul-Hussain, in an unamused tone, that "Assad had started to count the American eggs in his basket before offering anything in return." Adding, "Assad fires a rocket here or there [in south Lebanon] and expects us to run to him... This kind of security blackmail no longer works on the United States."

However, the straw that broke the camel's back, according to Abdul-Hussain's sources, was the regime's behavior after special envoy George Mitchell's latest trip to Syria in July. Abdul-Hussain's sources provides us with a recounting of what happened at the meeting between Assad and Mitchell, and what ensued afterwards:

"During the meeting between Mitchell and Assad in Damascus, the Syrian president asked the American envoy to explain to him the articles in the Syria sanctions. Mitchell pulled out the sanctions draft and read it article by article, and explained it in detail to Assad, which took over an hour and a half... Mitchell concluded by explaining the mechanism of placing and lifting sanctions, and informed Assad that they were reviewed yearly, and that they could be lifted if and when the necessary conditions were met."

However, the Syrians, who are always eager to portray relations with Washington as being on an inevitable path of entente, leaked, either intentionally or by mistake, that the US had promised to lift the sanctions imposed on Syria. Before Mitchell's plane landed in Dulles airport... a wave of anger was sweeping through official hallways in Washington. The State Department had not given Mitchell any instructions that would give the impression that it had any intention of lifting the sanctions. Likewise, several members of Congress were angry, and quickly requested meetings with diplomats from State in order to be briefed on the US envoy's meeting with Assad.

Mitchell showed the official minutes of the meeting with Assad to his colleagues at State and to his former colleagues in Congress. "When we read what really happened between the two me, we reached a singular decision: Assad was always trying to play us, and we had to prove to him that Washington's plans in the region are not dependent on him," said one high-level US source.
...
But what really angered the US administration, according to the sources, was that "after months of dialogue with him (Assad), he hadn't changed an inch in his behavior, and offered us nothing of what we were asking. Instead, he always asks us about what we can offer him, under the mercy of blackmail and instigating [security] incidents in the region... America will not succumb to Syrian blackmail."

The bit about the Syrians eagerly and prematurely leaking the disinformation about sanctions is certainly true, and I've written about it recently. Essentially, it's Imad Moustapha's doing (via the WSJ), which didn't win him any chums here (not that the had many). And apparently, according to rumors, his standing in Syria is not that hot either, given the way engagement with the US has gone, after Moustapha and pals had portrayed it as a walk in the park, setting up what Andrew Tabler dubbed a huge "expectations gap."

Abdul-Hussain also asked unnamed US officials regarding any Arab role to bring Washington's and Damascus' viewpoints closer, and they replied that "Egypt is angry at Assad and shares our point of view that there is no use talking to the Syrian regime. As for Saudi Arabia, we watched it offer concession after concession to Assad -- in Lebanon and elsewhere -- and we have not seen any results so far." The officials added, "Israel is further today than ever from the idea of prying Assad away from Iran." The Syrian president, said the officials, had tried to use the card of indirect talks with Israel -- via Turkey -- in order to get to Washington, "but Israel categorically rejected what Syria and its Turkish sponsor had to offer."

Finally, Abdul-Hussain concludes that this tension might be escalating, according to his estimation of the mood in Washington. His sources conclude by saying: "we went to Assad because we believe he's the weakest link in the alliance hostile to us in the Middle East. But he behaves as though he were the strongest link and places conditions on us instead of seizing the opportunity of engagement. In the midst of these discrepancies, a return to sharp disagreement, and perhaps even a lasting break, became inevitable."

All in all some very interesting stuff. Let's see how it plays out. But overall, the mood reflected in Abdul-Hussain's report was mirrored in this recent piece by Andrew Tabler. It was also reflected in Diehl's column: "The problem is that none of this has brought any results. ... The results of the outreach to Syria were manifest a couple of weeks ago when the Iraqi government withdrew its ambassador from Damascus after blaming Assad's regime for continuing to foment terrorism in Iraq."

Following up on Tabler's analysis in the aftermath of the crisis with Iraq (see my commentary on that here), David Schenker put forward a rather sensible policy advice, proposing the US "reevaluate" and "review" its approach to Syria.

Perhaps the administration is on a similar wavelength in its overall approach to Syria? In the end, as Ziad Majed recently put it, Syria pretends to be a player but has "no real capacity" to deliver. It's a structural reality that the administration would do well to acknowledge.

Tayyib, yalla bye

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 07:27 GMT

Frequent visitors of this blog will have noticed a lack of new postings. Reason is that I have changed jobs which does not leave me with enough time and focus to keep up the blog. So, it’s time to say goodbye and to thank you, my reader, for giving this blog your time of day. It was a great experience and I’ll never forget the first time I was asked if I was the same Riemer as the guy that writes the blog. Ah, the sweet taste of pride:-)

Lebanon Update started in Dutch, and was a direct result from the outbreak of the July War in 2006. Later on, I switched to English to reach a larger audience. I am proud to say that this worked out well: after a while, Lebanon Update started to receive 500-700 hits per day. This might be small potatoes compared to the more professional blogs about Lebanon, but for this amateur the numbers showed that other people share my love and fascination for Lebanon.

Being a blogger was an interesting experience. Often, people would ask me how I came up with all the topics for my articles…a question that always amazed me: there is so much to write about Lebanon! Many stories have been left untold, lots of events have never been published.

I tried to limit myself to one article per day, so the articles would build up….often only to be permanently deleted because some major incident happened. All in all, any journalist suffering from writer’s block should stay in Lebanon for a while, there’s just too much to write about.

Another question people usually asked was how much time it would take to write a typical article. Without being snug about it, but the answer is that it wouldn’t take me much more than 5-10 minutes. After forming a blog entry ‘in my head’, the physical act of typing it up was simply that: typing it up. Lucky for me I am not a professional writer, so I could get away with the rough edges, the spelling errors and the grammatical mistakes that resulted from not polishing the articles.

Blogging is a highly addictive activity and it is with fear for withdrawal symptoms that I bide you all farewell. I had a great time writing the blog, hope you had a great time reading it. Tayyib, yalla bye.

Excellent Find

Sat, 16 Feb 2008 05:59 GMT

Excellent post by fellow blogger Marillionlb, highly recommended, read it here.

Dietary Victory!

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:53 GMT

Let me be the first to declare Lebanon's "dietary victory" over the [imperialist] Zionist attempt to invade, occupy and annex the culinary terrain of the brave Lebanese nation.

Behold the internationally recognized achievement we have attained.

Read it and weep vile enemy, not one but two Guinness World Book of Records-setting dishes of savory goodness. Double-dip you shall not in the bowl of our righteousness!

Let this be a warning, any arm outstretched towards our falafel - or any other honorable dish - will meet the same shredded fate of the parsley laid before you.

Consider yourselves and your delirious claims annihilated!!

Photos courtesy of Daylife.com. Full story at Babylon & Beyond, background post here.

All Lebanese prisoners freed from Israel's jails

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 02:13 GMT

Yesterday saw massive festivities in Lebanon to celebrate the release of all Lebanese prisoners from Israel. Sure, there are those who are quick to point out that the price of their release has been enormous, just as quick as Hezbollah leader Nasrallah was quick to point out that the release of all prisoners was the original goal of the July War.

And he made sure the rest of the Arab world knew that it was thanks to Hezbollah they were released. One can only imagine how the average Arab felt when watching a proud Nasrallah saying that resistance is often the only way to get Israel to act, as opposed to diplomacy as is so often suggested by their leaders. Most likely, they would have gotten the implicit message that their leaders are weak whereas Hezbollah was strong.

Still, it requires some mental acrobatic maneuvering to hear Nasrallah claim that this results vindicates Hezbollah for any blame for the July War. Gone are the days back in August 2006 when Nasrallah expressed regret for the ‘unexpected’ harsh Israeli reaction. In the end, the goal justified the means.

Now that all Lebanese prisoners (dead and alive) have been released to Lebanon, this chapter can be closed. There are still some remaining issues, though. Still, hopefully the coming home yesterday of so many Lebanese will contribute to a more solid quiet on our southern front and not the starting shot of yet another round of violence now that Hezbollah can freely revenge Mughnieh.

Syria's Premature Triumphalism on Sanctions

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 07:52 GMT

Here's my commentary on the US sanctions on Syria, which were recently in the news. I'll be back shortly with a post on Imad Moustapha and his hilarious statements on this issue.

Mapping Out the Election Results

Sun, 07 Jun 2009 17:54 GMT

Let's run through what seems to be the final result of the election. It seems, with the preliminary results, that the March 14 coalition and its independent allies have won 71 seats, adding one seat to their current total, despite what March 8 thought would be an electoral law advantageous to them (the 1960 law adopted in the now-defunct Doha Accord). This puts to rest the myth that in 2005, M14 won because of its alliance with Hezbollah and the gerrymandering of the electoral law of 2000. M14's victory is clear. It ran unified lists and wherever M14 won, the lists won in total without any breaches.

Who are the winners and losers?

Obviously, M14 as a coalition emerges victorious. The independents add a couple to the total number but M14 still maintains a majority on its own. It's a decisive majority trashing once and for all Bashar Assad's "imaginary majority" and "transient few" snide remarks.

Hariri reemerges with the biggest bloc and thus keeps his position as head of the parliamentary majority. The Future Movement sailed through in the north, Beirut, the Western Bekaa and Zahle, and swept two seats in Sidon. The Lebanese Forces performed very strongly in Koura and Batroun, with M14 sweeping both, and eliminating Aoun's son-in-law Gebran Bassil in what is a major symbolic victory.

Walid Jumblat sacrificed from his share for the sake of the M14 alliance, and he emerges with a slightly diminished bloc as a result.

On the other side, Michel Aoun took a hit with the loss of his son-in-law, and saw his huge margin in Keserwen dwindle down drastically to about 2,000 votes, with Mansour al-Bone and his list performing ably.

Furthermore, this was done with Aoun's preferred electoral law, which he had been bragging about since the Doha Accord saying that he "forced" it on the other parties, and that it would "liberate" the Christian vote, especially in places like Ashrafiyeh, and that he would expand his bloc to over 30 MPs. Well, his list was demolished in Beirut 1 (Ashrafiyeh), where M14 swept all five seats.

Also, his allies in Zahle (Elie Skaff and the "Popular Bloc") got smashed, with M14 performing very strongly there.

Nevertheless, Aoun scored big in districts with large Hezbollah votes, namely Baabda and Jbeil. While a victory in Jbeil was expected, the sweep in Baabda is a net win. Aoun also maintained his sweep in Keserwen, despite a dramatically narrower edge. He also did well in the Metn, winning 6 (in alliance with the Armenian Tashnag party) out of 8, with Michel Murr and Sami Gemayel getting the other two. As such, Aoun will still claim he is the strongest in the Maronite heartland. Nevertheless, the win is very obviously a lot shakier than the "tsunami" of 2005, and nothing made it clearer than his son-in-law's big loss in Batroun. Batroun, whose citizens lost an Army pilot, shot down in his helicopter by Aoun's Hezbollah's allies, threw out the Aounists completely.

In effect, the Christian vote, as always, is still split. Aoun and his allies (Frangieh, Tashnag) will still have the largest Christian bloc (the seats in Jezzine will not be counted because they were never in play for M14, and they were gifts from Hezbollah -- and, incidentally, a setback for Berri).

The Tashnag Party, which huffed and puffed (and was puffed up by Western journos) mightily before the elections, ends up with a dud, getting only two seats (keeping the seat in Metn, and gaining a seat in Beirut 2). The other Armenian seats (Zahle, Beirut 1) went to M14.

Similarly, Michel Murr didn't pull off the kind of performance many thought he would, keeping only his seat in the Metn. He fielded a candidate in Baabda (Gharios) who lost. His companion in the Metn, Sarkis Sarkis, also lost.

Similarly, the so-called centrist bloc that was touted before the elections, comes out decidedly smaller than even initially thought. The bloc was supposed to be affiliated with the President, Suleiman, with candidates close to him, or effectively putting themselves in his corner, not breaking through: Nazim Khoury in Jbeil, al-Bone and Farid Haykal Khazen in Keserwen, Edmond Gharios (and even perhaps Pierre Daccache) in Baabda, and even Murr himself. Although there are others who did make it (people like Robert Ghanem, etc. can still support the President), the bloc as initially conceived did not quite materialize.

This balance of power will now be transferred to the battle over the cabinet formation. M14 has a clear victory, and so will pick the Prime Minister. The battle, however, will be over the heresy of the "veto third" -- which has no existence in the constitution or the Taef Accord. Hariri has been consistently rejecting its continuation in the future cabinet, and he got support today from Jumblat as well, who called it a "fallacy." M14 will agree to a national unity government, though its principled position now is that it rejects the "veto third" formula. They are making plenty of noise about giving a boost to Suleiman, and how that will materialize remains to be seen. M8 is almost certainly going to reject it and will cite the relatively weak performance of the so-called independents/centrists as support for their position. This is a potential looming crisis on the horizon, as I argued in my pre-election briefing, especially since Hezbollah and the March 8 groups have shown themselves to be anti-democratic and violent forces who wouldn't hesitate to paralyze the country and ultimately attack people in their homes to get what they want.

Let's see how this plays out.

La guerre des autres; or...THE MEDIA DID IT!!!!!

Mon, 09 Jun 2008 00:34 GMT

Nothing in Lebanon is ever the fault of those actually responsible. Accountability has been trdade down a long time ago for accusability in this country: don't worry about who did what, rather focus on who to blame the easiest.

As a mere theoretical example and for illustration purposes only, let's assume we have a political party laying siege to half the capital through military means, would we blame this party for using arms against fellow Lebanese?

Hah, that one's easy: of course not! How about spreading the blame: all politicians are to blame leaving no one in particular to pinpoint the blame upon, you say? Good thinking, you're getting the hang of it. But, but, but, we'd rather see someone or something actually receiving the blame, we don't want any loose ends.

So how about the press?! Let's blame them for the violence, the hatred and the destruction Lebanon suffers from. The press is weak, always divided and, most importantly, they can't fight back because they depend on us, the readers for their existence. This means they care for us, unlike politicians who do fine without us. In fact, they'd prefer to have as little as possible to do with the ones voting them in office.

Good, so the press it is. Now that we have established our victim, let's see what we should accuse them of. Not that it really matters all that much because usually the accusation alone suffices for most Lebanese, but let's wrap things up nicely. No loose ends, remember?

This one is a bit tricky. Sure we can accuse them of being biased, but whoever said the press needs to be neutral, right? So let's first come out and claim just that: the media are supposed to be neutral. If we say this loud enough and repeat it frequently enough, people will accept this preposition without a problem. After that, we'll be able to blame them for being biased.

"Too obvious, Riemer. No one's gonna buy that!", you say? Well, think again. And psst...be sure to ignore the quote of professor Nabil Dajani who had the nerve to say that "The Lebanese media is only reinforcing existing attitudes and accentuating them, but not forcing them". Tsk, too much common sense is not a good thing, especially when it would lead to the clearly unwanted conclusion that perhaps the Lebanese get the press they deserve...oops!

Before You Start Shooting...

Wed, 07 Nov 2007 05:48 GMT

Hello there, fellow Lebanese! (reporting from inside a crate, in a container, on a ship... heading to Zimbabwe...uhh, I'm lying)

Well I can't help but reading the news day in and day out... This has become more of a time-killing hobby rather than a genuine interest in the outcome of the previous, current and future charades & masquerades. Being a daily news reader, browsing Lebanon's top Internet news websites, various party websites and World Media, I reluctantly accepted the theories promoting WAR as the result of the current dead end.

Frankly, and without hesitation I am convinced that we're heading towards a conflict, which could prove to be a reproduction of the Civil war and span for a long period of time, or a Clean Coup d'état, (Boom Bang & Snip...) as far as I know, SOMEONE has a lot of weapons... The feuding warlords, warmongers, megalomaniacs and hysterical puppets, alongside the herd they're leading, seem to be unwilling to compromise, or at least speak to each other like normal, boring humans do.

In light of this dim and dark scenario, I came up with a few recommendations to the smart Lebanese Youths whose hands are more than eager to grab a hold of that shiny, glittering (M16 aw kalash) piled up in the corner:

I wouldn't give a sh!t, if you massacre each other out... if you are idiotic enough to hold a weapon against your fellow Lebanese, then you deserve whichever fate you will receive.
I wouldn't shed a tear for a lost friend, relative or even my own father if he or they decide to hold weapons, again!
I wouldn't give a darn, if you destroy this country, set it on fire or raze it to the ground... I love Lebanon but frankly my hatred towards our current society and behaviour is growing more and more.
Whatever you do, please... avoid targeting the "Dora Gas Tanks" most of you are too young to remember it, but trust me... that wasn't an 'enriching' experience.
Whatever you do, please... try not to point a gun at my face if I am unfortunate enough to pass by one of your checkpoints.
Whatever you do, please... I have a small Internet Cafe somewhere in Beirut, which I put my heart and soul into, try not to loot it.
Whatever you do, please... try not to get high on Maria's and dope, it won't do your public image any good (Can you remember those guys in uniforms? addressing the young audience)
Whatever you do, please... do not shoot into the air celebrating or mourning someone or something... Two ricochet bullets missed me during the war, I prefer not to push my luck any further.
Whatever you do, please... try binding yourselves into a minimum, acceptable social behavior, a 20'ish year old macho-guy beating a 45 year old woman in plain view with his machine gun isn't a nice view (have you been there?)
Whatever you do, please... make sure you cover the dead bodies in the streets with (keles, Limestone? translation needed) if you don't, trust me the sweet aroma of dead bodies would kill you faster than a bullet.
Whatever you do, please... try not to terrorize the 8 - 10 year old boys playing with a china-made, low quality soccer ball, just for the fun of seeing the reaction on their faces.
Whatever you do, please... try not to rape too many women and girls, the sight and sound might affect your bright future.
Whatever you do, please... make sure not to target-practice on by passers and innocent Mommy's (3am bienchro el ghasil 3al balcon)
Whatever you do, please... take enough bags of bread, but keep a few for the starving residents, holding guns and breaking the lines would only serve to fuel anger against you, you don't want that to happen... right?
Whatever you do, please... drive your tanks as crazy as you like, but try not to climb over a few parked cars just for the sake of showing off, feeling the power and hearing the sound of an aging, roaring engine.
Whatever you do, please... try not to shoot at those brave men holding buckets of water and trying to put down a blazing fire at a neighbor's house, just because you like the sight of the blaze (or you want an available fire to roast your marshmallows).
Whatever you do, please... If you find yourselves 'obliged' to torture someone (or execute him\her), do it privately... no need to tie his\her four limbs to four cars and setting off as fast as you can in different directions (it's all becoming a bit of a cliché, be innovative)... the resulting blood and guts would mess the picturesque view of the misfortunate neighborhood.
Whatever you do, please... refrain from using skulls-on-a-stick, to embellish your surroundings, it might cause nausea and vomiting to the world audience watching the CNN or Al-Jazeera...
Whatever you do, please... try not to cut the ears of your prisoners and using them as a 'porte-clé' to show how strong and brave you are in front of plastered-with-make-up local chicks.
Whatever you do, please... try to memorize the events of each day, you might want to reminisce (or repent) if you get old enough to do so.
Whatever you do, please... when the war is over, make sure you take your riffle and head towards the nearest toilet (or a secluded place), apply some baby oil (or any available lube) on the tip of your riffles and shove them UP your... (throat?) as deep as they can go, when you're done, wipe the resulting blood, using the pictures and posters of your leader, deal? hope it fits you fine.

As for those who have been in my shoes, who have witnessed some of the above mentioned, who have tasted the bitter flavor of war, and those who share my view, my aspiration for a better future, my longing for a 'human' society, my yearning for a peaceful life, my hopes for a country living in the present and not a couple-hundred-years behind, my fight for a change, for a place to raise my children, love my wife, go to a dance-club, watch a comic play, and a place to deliver my final breath, then may the invisible, all powerful gods of past, present and future be with you...

I have nothing more to say... for now!

(who am I kidding, those targeted by this post are already busy planning their heroic deeds, they have no time to read a bunch of nonsense coming out of the mouth of a stupid, Internet-using geek)

Waiting for the big quake

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 00:28 GMT

Officials are denying it, so it must be true: the next big Lebanese earthquake is right around the corner. The last few months has witnessed already some 500 (!) minor shakes and tremors, according to Israeli experts. If they can feel it over there, then maybe these quakes are not so minor after all.

For those Lebanese who don't like to panic (um, yeah, right, as if there are any!), please tune to your local expert. Lebanon's National Council for Scientific Research chaired by George Tohme who recently received an honorary doctorate from AUB, has stated there is no reason to worry. Their secretary said that earthquakes are impossible to predict. He then continued that there is no evidence to suggest a large earthquake will strike soon.

Uh-huh. Makes you wonder what he would have said in case there was evidence. Would earthquakes be predictable then, after all? Anyway...

Some people claim that the best method to predict an earthquake is to look at its history because earthquakes tend to happen with a certain frequency. In Lebanon, e.g., major earthquakes happen every 80 years, or so history teaches us. The last big one occurred in 1927, already 81 years ago. Yes, that's right: if history's any guidance, we're one year late for an earthquake!

The pattern for the truly big ones, shows yet another disturbing rhythm, namely every 1500 years, give or take a few. The last superquake to hit Lebanon was back in 550. It wiped out the coastal line of Lebanon and completely destroyed Beirut and Tripoli. Experts claim that 4 such quakes have hit Lebanon during the last 6,000 years before.

Lots of things to worry about. Good thing we have our beloved politicians to keep our mind off of things!

The Syrian Mirage: All Bills and No Merchandise

Wed, 22 Jul 2009 07:24 GMT

Here's my latest for NOW Lebanon, which in a way follows up on Michael Young's recent piece in The National.

Syria has long tried to convince the world that nothing could be done in the region without its help. But Syria’s regional relevance is on the decline, and while the US is re-engaging Damascus, the reality is that the Assad regime comes to the table with a weak hand.

I explore two recent headlines that draw attention to Syrian marginality and limitations: Farouq Qaddoumi's storm in a tea cup, and Moqtada Sadr's meeting with Assad.

Assad is looking anywhere and everywhere for the semblance of strong cards. Ultimately, this reflects the fundamental flaw in the Syrian mirage: For structural reasons the Syrians cannot deliver what the US expects of them. Therefore, they trade in snake oil to create the illusion of importance.

When it comes to describing what dealing with Syria is all about, we can borrow from the title of a song by the American soul singer Clarence Carter. It’s like “getting the bills; but no merchandise.”

Across the Bay on Twitter

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 10:34 GMT

So I've succumbed and decided to give Twitter a try following the advice of my friend Mustapha of Beirut Spring.

You'll see a Twitter widget in the margin to your right. It's for short notices (which I hope will be more frequent), whereas the longer posts will still be here and in my regular op-eds. For the time being I'm removing the Quick Links feature until I figure out if the Twitter thing works as an alternative.

�?�?ا�? برس�? "ا�?س�?�?د" �?صرا�?�?�? �?تابع�? ا�?أ�?�?�?

Mon, 18 Feb 2008 11:45 GMT

All of the following, are headlines from ANNAHAR newspaper, you can check their authenticity yourself if you subscribe to the Online Archives service (my comments are in Italic).

14-03-1989 �?ص�? عش�?ائ�? ع�?�? �?�? ب�?ر�?ت�? ع�?�? �?ت�?�?�? س�?ر�?ا ب�?�?ارسة حرب أبادة ع�?�? �?ب�?ا�? �?�?ع�?�? بدا�?ة حرب ا�?تحر�?ر
Riz Allah?

29-03-1989 �?ارثة خز�?ا�?ات ا�?د�?رة, ع�?�?: س�?ر�?ا �?حد�?ا �?تعا�?�?ة �?ع اسرائ�?�?
Syria is the only part dealing with Israel, I wonder why he'd changed his mind now...

30-06-1989 حزب ا�?�?�? �?ع�?�? ا�?�?�?اء ا�?�?ط�?�? �?آ�?ة ا�?�?�? ا�?س�?�?د ع�?�? خا�?�?ئ�?
Why would the Divine 'Lebanese Resistance" claim complete and utter loyalty to a foreign turban-wearing Mullah?

31-08-1989 ع�?�?: ا�?ح�?ار �?ع س�?ر�?ا �?ستح�?�? �?أ�?�?ا تر�?د ض�?�? �?ب�?ا�?
I'd like to ask Mr. Aoun & the FPM partisans if they truly believe that things have changed now... if Syria is finally convinced that we are a HISTORICAL entity with every God-damned-given right to exist as a sovereign nation, or not!

01-09-1989 حزب ا�?�?�? �?ع�?�? حرب �?�?ت�?حة �?ع ا�?�?�?ار�?ة �?عتبرا ح�?�?ة ع�?�? ع�?�? س�?ر�?ا �?�? ح�?�?ة �?أبادة ا�?�?س�?�?�?�?
Have no fear Maronites, The MoU is here! God Bless our Savior, General Aoun, the secular leader!

21-09-1989 حزب ا�?�?�?: �?ر�?ض رئ�?س�?ا �?ار�?�?�?ا �?�?ر�?ض ا�?ذ�?�? تحت اس�? ا�?تعا�?ش �?ع ا�?�?صار�?
But that was back in 89, Hezbollah is a peace loving, neighbor hugging, tree planting, make love not war party... they want a Maronite Christian for a president now, in 2008... and guess who did they nominate? hmm...

13-10-1989 حزب ا�?�?�?: س�?�?ز�?�? ات�?ا�? ا�?طائ�?
Phase Complete... moving on to phase 3? 4? I lost count...

06-11-1989 ع�?�? دع�? ا�?بطر�?ر�? ا�?�? ا�?است�?ا�?ة اذا تعارضت ا�?ت�?اعات�? �?ا�?شعب
For those who think that his ever growing love towards the patriarch is a new issue

12-11-1989 حزب ا�?�?�?: ا�?طائ�? استس�?ا�? �?�?�?ار�?�?�?�?ة ا�?س�?اس�?ة �?اسرائ�?�?
Translated into: coexistence, national unity!

27-11-1989 س�?ر�?ا ترس�? �?ع�?�?�?ات عا�?ة ع�?�?ا ا�?�? �?ؤسسة �?ب�?ا�?�?ة ح�?ث ت�?غ�? �?�?�?ا �?ب�?ا�? �?�? حد�?د�?ا ا�?غرب�?�?ة
Syria loves us, to the extent that they want to hug us, hug us so strong and never let us go... how nice these guys are.

03-12-1989 ع�?�? ا�?ا�? احد�? أ�?بر ا�?�?ظا�?رات �?�? بعبدا: �?ا ار�?د أ�? ا�?�?�? �?ائبا ا�? �?ز�?را
I want to be a president (but alas, he didn't declare that)

02-01-1990 �?�?اء ب�?�? ا�?ع�?اد �?جعجع �?�? بعبدا - ع�?�? �?صر�?ح: �?خرج دائ�?ا �?ت�?ا�?�?�?�?
Kinda makes me wonder why he'd want to 'clean the area' from 'militants' a few days later...

08 -01-1990 ع�?�?: ع�?�? س�?ر�?ا أ�? ت�?سحب �?ا�? غدا س�?�?�?�? راس ا�?�?ظا�? �?�? ا�?ث�?�?
Tomorrow... came 15 years later.

09-01-1990 ا�?�?�?�?�?: �?دع�? �?ازا�?ة ع�?�? ب�?�? ا�?�?سائ�?
Aren't those the cute guys that the FPM struggles to make alliances with in Universities? aren't they the same bastards who do not believe in Lebanon as a country? who assassinated Bachir Gemayel? who fought Lebanese Army that was under Aoun's control? hmm...

30-01-1990 ع�?�?: �?�? �?س�?ح بعد ا�?�?�?�? بب�?د�?�?ة خارج اطار ا�?ج�?ش
What I like about Aoun is that he always keeps his promises, he has never changed.. what a man!

31-01-1990 بدا�?ة ا�?�?�?اج�?ات ب�?�? ا�?ج�?ش �?ا�?�?�?ات
Why? Mon General?

13-02-1990 ا�?ع�?اد ع�?�?: �?د�?�?ا تح�?�?�? د�?�?ة �?�?�?ذج�?ة �?ا تس�?ط �?�?�?ا �?ب�?د�?�?ة غ�?ر شرع�?ة
God Bless your soul Mon General, Thank you for taming Hezbollah's weapons the same way you did with the Lebanese Forces, what a great man you are.

08-04-1990 ا�?ع�?اد: �?ج�?ة ا�?�?ساطات �?ش�?ت �?�?�?س �?�?بطر�?ر�? س�?طة ع�?�? �?ا�?�? �?ا است�?د س�?طت�? �?�? ا�?�?�?�?سة
Again, his love to the patriarch is deep, strong, and has been growing for a long period of time...

05-10-1990 ا�?ع�?اد ع�?�?: ا�?ا �?�?�?�? ا�?�?ب�?�? با�?�?سا�?�?ة �?ت�? تع�?�? ا�?ا�?ر ب�?ص�?ر �?ط�?�?
I'd like to ask General Aoun the same question regarding the current dilemma...

13-10-1990 ا�?ط�?را�? ا�?س�?ر�? �?�?ص�? ا�?عس�?ر�? �?�?درسة ا�?ج�?�?�?ر �?ا�?�?ع�?د ا�?ا�?ط�?�?�? �?�? بعبدا ث�? �?ضرب �?صر ا�?شعب
ا�?ط�?را�? ا�?س�?ر�? �?�?ص�? ا�?�?�?اط�? ا�?س�?�?�?ة ب�?�?�?ا �?ا�? �?�?ا�? تح�?�?�? �?�?ط�?را�? ا�?اسرائ�?�?�?
ا�?ج�?ش ا�?س�?ر�? �?جتاح ا�?�?�?ط�?ة ا�?حر�?ة بتغط�?ة �?�? �?دا�?ع ا�?�?�?ات
ا�?ع�?اد �?�?ت�?�? ا�?�? ا�?س�?ارة ا�?�?ر�?س�?ة �?ا�?�?طاع ا�?اتصا�?ات �?�? بعبدا ا�?�? ا�?خارج �?تب�?�? عائ�?ت�? �?�? بعبدا
ا�?ع�?اد ع�?�? �?ط�?ب �?�? ا�?عس�?ر�?�?�? ت�?�?�? ا�?ا�?ا�?ر �?�? ا�?ع�?اد �?ح�?د �?تس�?�?�? ا�?�?رزة ا�?�? ا�?ج�?ش ا�?�?ب�?ا�?�? �?شرط �?�?�?�? ا�?�?ص�? ا�?س�?ر�? �?�?�?�? ا�?�?ص�? است�?ر
ا�?س�?ر�?�?�? ارت�?ب�?ا 4 �?جازر �?بر�?: بس�?س �?د�?ر ا�?�?�?عة �?ض�?ر ا�?�?حش �?ت�?ة ت�?رز
ا�?ضباط ا�?س�?ر�?�?�? اعد�?�?ا 120 ضابطا �?عس�?ر�?ا �?�? بعبدا �?سر�?�?ا ا�?�?ا�? �?د�?ر�?ة ا�?�?خابرات �?�?زارة ا�?د�?اع
ا�?ج�?ش ا�?س�?ر�? �?عت�?�? ا�?�?ئات �?�? ع�?اصر ا�?ج�?ش �?�?�?�?�?�?�? ا�?�? ا�?شا�? �?�?ح�?د �?ص�? ا�?�? بعبدا بعد ا�?ظ�?ر
تست�?ر ا�?�?ت�?بة 102 �?�? ا�?د�?اع ع�? جب�?ة ض�?ر ا�?�?حش حت�? ا�?ساعة 5.30
Well, let's straighten things up, General Aoun was very clear when he said that he'd be the last person to leave, and true to his promise, that's what he did... He DIDN't leave his faithful and loyal soldiers to meet their destiny, he DIDN'T run away leaving his family behind, he DOESN'T have HUNDREDS OF detainees in Syria, he... is clueless!

05-05-1991 ا�?ع�?اد ع�?�? �?تر�? �?ب�?ا�? ا�?�? �?ر�?سا
Go back there for the love of Cheese-topped-Spaghetti...

* From fighting Syria (on false claims) to signing MoU's & unofficially allying himself with Baathists, SSNP, Amal....
* From fighting WARS to remove a 'Christian resistance's' weapons to signing treaties and acknowledging the SAINTHOOD of 'Shi'ite resistance' and the NEED to keep their weapons
* From accusing Hezbollah of being a terrorist organization to 'giving condolences' when a major terrorist 'Imad Mughniyeh' gets toasted
* From assuring everyone that he'd be the last person to leave the battle, to the first man to flee in the trunk of a car, leaving behind a family, and heroes who believed in him, and fought for him, only to die deceived...

General Aoun, your acts are too numerous to be summarized. You Sir, are an imposter, a fake, a warmonger, a megalomaniac, a schizophrenic, a delusional don xichote who's mental illness and below average IQ brought nothing but pain and misery to a nation I cannot help but love... You sir, are a fraud, a backstabber with no loyalties, no honor and certainly no dignity... You sir, have no respect for your martyrs, no commitment towards your PoW's, no stability in your decisions and certainly no common sense.

God Bless you... Mon General!